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Identifying the Optimal Turning Points and Trends
of the Precious Metals Markets
Last home page update ~ Thursday Sept 2 2:00 PM EST.....
The nightly reports are being worked on..................
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GOLD and SILVER
GOLDTRENDS CHARTS OF GOLD AND SILVER
Gold managed to hold the downtrend line on a pullback we had anticipated and is once again trying to rally to higher ground. On the daily button initial resistance was listed at 1247-1253 and the high for the day was 1252.50 in spot. Initial support was listed at 1237-1242 and the low was 1243. Is the pullback over and higher prices are still in store for the short term?
Click on today's daily button for our latest outlook.
What about Gold Funds ?
from Nick Laird over at www.sharelynx.com. It's Nick's 'PM Fund Index. Look how close to a breakout we are.
What's up with Silver you ask ?
Why has silver been in such a sideways pattern? Lets take a real long term look at the monthly chart.
This 37 year view of silver on a monthly basis reveals a few interesting tib-bits. The first thing that jumps out is a down trend line from the top of the spike high of 1980 that when drawn over the 2008 high of 21 dollars just happens to provide a resistance area EXACTLY where price has been trading in 2010.
At the moment this upper resistance line is the most important factor on the monthly chart as pertains to price. It is the final barrier of resistance until the 2008 and the $25 dollar area. Any move above the $20 dollar area would suggest a rally to $25. Also -- it is very interesting that if we draw a parallel trend line from the monthly gap in 1980 at the 29-30 dollar area, it also just happens to cross under the lows established in 2005 and 2008.
The arrows are where the most important price points are. Click on the silver button and scroll down to August 23rd for the full report. IN SILVER -- WE HAVE BEEN NEUTRAL FOR OVER 6 MONTHS -until last week-- now price is near a breakout -- while no one knows the future -- a move above $20 should be interesting IF it happens......and could set the stage for a move to $25.
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Buttonwood turn dates -- The group has been using the Stochastic's above to discern potential trend when the key dates arrive. The group is working on refining many aspects and is also studying if there are longer term signals that can be extracted from the data they use. Buttonwood dates usually emit a trend change -- or an acceleration in price. As in all timing indicators --- there is no holy grail.
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The next buttonwoods date has arrived (Aug 30th - 31st) and yesterdays pullback was minimal. The next date is Sept 6th . We don't have an updated chart as one of the buttonwood members was injured last weekend in a boating accident. Any move above today's high would favor (from a buttonwood standpoint --- higher to Sept 6th. The potential that today's high marks the beginning of a pullback to Sept 6th is also valid. So any move above 1255 should tilt the odds higher to Sept 6th.
Silver has been reacting to the tight cluster of buttonwood dates --- and the next set Aug 30-31st has arrived-- The pullback has been marginal --- more of a sideways action and todays rally seems to favor that we have made a low and that higher prices are in order. As long as price remains bullish -- we will stay with that outlook.
For the past few weeks we've watched the S&P move down to what we have called the most important trend line in the stock market. About a week ago --- we began to question the OUTRIGHT bearishness in stocks ----- hindenberg omens and crash Elliot Wave C's --- something we've been hearing for a long long time. After a week of back and forth --- price exploded higher today and rallied 264 points. I think this area needs to be watched carefully --- and until it is clearly broken to the downside ---- we should NOT favor LOWER prices just yet.
SHOULD THE JULY LOWS BE TAKEN OUT --- the ODDS WILL INCREASE that the rally from 2009 is complete and the next leg down is underway.
BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS --- WHEN PRICE IS AT OR ABOVE THE UPTREND LINE -- price is saying that the uptrend is still intact. If and when price moves above the moving averages -- it will suggest that the longer term uptrend has resumed. September will be important --- it is usually the worse month for the market --- and we could very well have an October smash. Whatever the OUTCOME --- this trendline is where the LONG TERM BULL AND BEAR FORCES MEET.
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As regards to the Monument example above -- reader Bob Hartwell writes: In the Washington Monument comparison of gold volume, you call a Metric Tonne of Gold at 15 cubic inches in the parenthesis. That's a bit off. It's actually 3,375 cubic inches. The cube of gold you are describing is actually 15 inches on a side which is called out in the text. That's about 2 cubic feet.
Euro downtrend nearing a place of potential short term support.
Our original target for resistance on the Euro bounce was 131-134 - and our outlook for this downtrend's initial support is the 123-125 area. So far --- 126 has been the low ----- it seems like a channel might be forming.
World`s 100 top gold stock longs
Mineweb
The Seasonal chart played out pretty good in July and suggests a week one low in August............before a mid month high.
The 21st Century Gold Bull
Market
Gold News
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When does gold rally the most? When we have negative interest rates.
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